Obama Has A Better Than 80% Chance of Winning the Election
According to Five Thirty Eight, run by Nate Silver over at the New York Times, President Obama now has an 83.7 % chance of winning the election – up from 80.8% on Friday. Silver, who has an excellent track record in predicting election outcomes, uses a statistical model which uses aggregations of polling data from various nationwide and state polls. In 22 swing state polls released on Friday, Obama was in the lead in 19, two were a tie and in one, lonely little outlier of poll by Mason Dixon in Florida, Romney had a slight lead.
While the numbers have shifted slightly from day to day, this is basically what the polls have been telling us for weeks: Obama will win the election. The Romney camp continues with their shrill cries that “the election is a toss-up” and that it’s “too close to call” as they try to maintain some enthusiasm among the base and try to get them to turn out to vote on election day. There is indeed significant statistical evidence that shows that turn out will drop for a candidate who is perceived as being a loser. Many people may feel that there’s no need for them to vote in an election where the victor seems to be preordained. So, the Romney camp has deployed their spin doctors in full force trying desperately to maintain the illusion that this will be a close contest and Romney has a clear electoral path to victory. The morning after may be a rude awakening for many GOP party faithful.
However, whether you’re a clear eyed Romney supporter who knows your candidate is all but destined for defeat or an Obama supporter putting the champagne to chill in the fridge, there is still every reason for you to turn out and vote. There are down ticket races, propositions and referendums in many states. The presidential election is not the only thing that’s going on November 6th. So, get out there and vote. Whichever side of the political spectrum you’re on. These state and local elections do matter. As President Bartlett said in the West Wing “…you don’t take these people seriously ’cause they don’t get anywhere nationally, but they don’t have to. All they have to do is, bit by little bit, get themselves on the Boards of Education and city councils. ‘Cause that’s where all the governing that really matters to anybody really happens.”